2 August 2011

Editor, Press Register.

The scary deficit/debt ever to close to driving over the default cliff scenario, make the 2012 Presidential election one of the most important in our nation’s history.  Some of the red hot button campaign issues will surely be  high unemployment, debt/deficit solution by committee, and the dreadful thought of a double dip recession.  The campaign is likely to be remembered for Republicans and Democrats locked in choking partisan battles to the point of public exhaustion.   News media pundits will surely pile on their own brand and could influence the election to swing one way or the other.

Is the Democrat’s Message Wearing Thin? Former President, George Bush is their favorite target.   This is a demagogic distraction from conditions with a revealing unrealistic world of the Democrats.  Bush is blamed for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Still, the and of war seems no closer to an end.  At best, the fault for these wars if found in opinion that influences a public grown weary of war.

Bush is also blamed mostly for running up the deficit/debt.  It is a fact however, that Obama has increased the deficit by more than twice that of his predecessor.  Also, the latest debt/deficit legislation is long term and likely the only beginning of more crises in the months and years to come.  The fact of the matter is the nation is broke and it is likely the deficit will not a great deal less by 2012.

A great deal of the past Democrat’s success is attributable to their use on the public of popular one liner grandma over a cliff that amount to demagogic, but popular with the masses, slogans.  Repeated thousands of time by a media eager for exploit them, a public that is too busy with life’s struggles check these for the truth and facts.

Still, it will be challenges for the Republicans to other wise convince the public.  Republicans must advance plans and programs that are convincing and practical and can turn around our economy around.  The highest priorities must be given to ways and means of adding more and better jobs, solve our national debt/deficit crisis, and dedicated to bringing home our troops from war with honor.

Excellent Choice of Candidates.  It is too early in the campaign  to decide which of the Republicans can convince a majority of Americans that he or she can do a better job than President Obama.   Among them are bright and savvy Republican nominees.  They can win the Presidency if they offer appealing arguments to the masses that are fed up with chronic unemployment, an over-reaching spending, and failure to stimulate the private business sector.

The Tea Party. The Tea Party has won the attention of the public with awareness of the financial crisis in entitlements and other aspects of big brother government.  Aided by an eager to report news, Democrats have taken the Tea Party to task creating an impression it is disassembling entitlements.  Instead, this strong and sweeping movement is keeping the politician’s eye on the ball to see how Obama and minions faltering attempts are going to deal with the financial crises faced by the nation.

Dems.  Hold Traditional Advantages. Having said that, Obama and the Democrats seem to have  many, but not overwhelming  advantages.   He is the incumbent President and his rock star popularity with his base could  propel him to victory.  Too, Democrats historically are better at playing the game  of social issues appealing to the poor, union members, constituents, the far left, intellectuals, and pseudo.  Also, there is a majority of news media that make a living of quoting and analyzing his every movement.  His star provides plenty of material.  To offset his popularity, any Republican nominee must make a strong case for convincing a majority of the electorate he or she will be better off and why if elected, year 2012.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.  Heading a long list of Obama’s vulnerabilities is unemployment.   Solving the dilemma  of how to encourage the private sector to hire more unemployed should occupy the highest priority in the Republican’s campaign.  The unemployment statistic will likely remain close to 9 points for some time.  Most of the Obama Administration’s ideas require more government funds for stimulus, college education, and taxing the rich.  Taxing the rich, oil companies, etc. is a no brainer for it will amount to pittance in revenue that is required to get the economy moving again.  However, this is a hot button issue. It can be put to bed through tax reform.   First, a wary public must be convinced in the fairness if the rich, middle class, and poor pay their fair share   the end game of tax reform is it could produce the revenue required to minimize the debt.   Add tax reform to a mix of austerity in spending, and it is likely the private sector can create more and better jobs, a winning formula for a Republican President in 2012.

Entitlements.  The Elephants in the Room. The Republicans must calm the Democrats clamor over cuts in entitlements that are fostering protests among seniors.  Republicans should remind the public their candidate has a grandmother too and there is no way she will be thrown her over a cliff.

Next on the Republican bucket list is finding practical ways and means to pay for the burgeoning cost of entitlements…Social Security, Health Care, food stamps and other welfare.  There appear to be ways to fix each of them without taking some of the draconian measures suggested by some.  Deals will have to make with extremist opponents.  A window of opportunity will open soon with the advent of a debt/deficit reduction appointed Congressional committee.  The way the tea leaves are being read, the public will pay more for less in entitlements.

The Affordable Health Care Act (OBAMACARE). Republican Paul Ryan has pointed to previously little known facts.  Paying for Obama care could require borrowing from the other funds adding and higher costs for purchasing long term and private care Premiums.  Tens of thousands Americans stand to lose the employee funded health care insurance and could be thrown into a state exchange that may be more like Medicaid than their Medicare.  Also, his plan does not change the policies of those over age of 55. The candidate must also emphasize how cuts in Medicare will affect their doctors and hospitals and as a consequence their own care.  These cuts in reimbursements will likely also affect jobs and lower pay for nurses, technicians and hospital workers in the medical field.  Republicans must convince dubious public, particularly scared seniors that electing a Republican will offer more faith for better treatment by doctors instead of reliance for decisions by the newly formed Washington appointed Medicare Board.

Repeal. Obamacare’s long term goal will likely lead to a single payer, government controlled health care plan that will bottom out with a Medicaid standard for all.  The key to the reality of a one payer system is implementation of state insurance exchanges made the law of the land by Obama.  Repealing this law would allow patients to cross state lines and is likely to lower competitive premiums for health care.

Taxes.  There is much talk, but no action on the vital subject of a practical tax code reform.  Tax reform is of major importance to pay as we go revenue required to balance the budget.  Although some in Congress seem to support the idea of tax reform, few are willing to put their words into action.  Tax reform could save the middle class from decline and become a major factor in reducing the nation’s debt.   The Republican candidate has to explain how tax reform could work to the majority of their advantage.

Fanny and Freddie. The home ownership market will likely have long uphill recovery from loss of home equity and a high rate of foreclosures at least through 2012.   Reforming F. and F. might a help to give mortgage holders a more efficient and effective consolidation of the two financial organizations.  This reform might help to insure that more of the middle class keep their homes.

Too Much Regulation. Another of Obama’s vulnerabilities is his and Congress’ regulations that are stifling business and banks.  Republicans must have some specifics and tell the voting public how they can repeal these worst of these regulations and encourage the private sector to hire more of the unemployed into jobs.

Economic Turn Around. A savvy Republican candidate could gain the upper hand by explaining in easy to understand terms how the GOP economic program can right our sinking economic ship in the shortest possible number of years and not break the federal bank.

A Bright IDEA FOR MORE BETTER PAYING JOBS. A step that could turn our economy around in the new and positive direction is a suggestion made by an economic think tank.  Led by private enterprise with some government encouragement, it is proposed our nation should under take a German-like industrialized revival that would create high skill level jobs for the young and unemployed of working age.  The  latter may have to rely on educating the voting public of the many advantages of wholesome job and good paying jobs and right to work outside the confining union box.

Home Mortgage Foreclosure.  Due to government mismanagement, of a Demos stimulus plan that should have reduced mortgages for home owners is faltering and foreclosures are continue at an alarming pace.  The GOP must place emphasis on how a  new President lead from the front to bring an end to the down turn in home buying a likely factor to become  a double dip recession.

The New Majorities.  The nominee must also find ways to appeal  to the youth, independents, Black and Hispanic voters.  The Republican nominee should concentrate the campaign on women of color for many are now responsible for paying the family bills and have a strong influence over family politics.  As for the young, preparing them realistically with job-oriented education could become a solution to prepare them for achievement of middle class status.  But, the gorilla in the pantry is the important issue of what to do about immigration and those already in the America.  If the GOP expects to garner the Hispanic vote, they would do well tell those already in this country what the future holds for them.

The Advantages of a Dynamic Candidate. By the time the campaign swings into high gear, the chosen Republican candidate must become well known to the public and convey a convincing positive message.   He or she must win over an absolute majority of Republicans to offset Obama’s personal popularity.

President’s War Powers. There are Republicans waiting behind the curtain anxious to scald Obama for the failure to comply with the War Powers Act and seek a Congressional consensus over use of our armed forces for this war.

A separate issue, but no less important is the Administration’s proposed gargantuan cut in defense spending.  This issue spans not only armed forces readiness, but cuts could mean a looming unemployment problem for large numbers of veterans slashed from the military rolls.

Obama Justice.  The candidate can find plenty of rich material in the Eric Holder’s Justice Department’s fated  ideological activities.  In a circus like atmosphere, he would  try some of the world’s worst terrorist  in civil courts.  More often than not these trials  would lead to lenient sentences and terrorists would likely be  returned to their home countries where they could resume attacks.   Also, his failure to excuse CIA agents who were doing their jobs is another Obama negative that should be exploited.  Another issue is “Fast and Furious”, a government program that has put more guns into the Mexican Cartel’s hands.  One wonders if Holder’s policies reflect Obama’s view of the American nation.

New Foreign Policies. Candidates must speak clearly about foreign policies and  emphasize that leadership will be from the front and not from behind as is often the case given “Obamaforeign”.   Another of Obama’s fallacies that should be called  to attention of the public, is the Obama Administration‘s virtually over night cancellation of planned missile defense missile system in Poland and Czech Republic.   This action was a shock to Allies and gift to Russians.  One wonders how many American jobs were lost due to cancellation of this missile shield system.  A new foreign policy must set a course that can restore the affects of loss of face and respect for American influence and the use of our power.

A Warning for Republican Candidates. During the campaign, trashing Obama will have its limits.  The public could grow tired of hearing about how he has led many of the major issues our time from behind, allowing others to the dirty work.  Instead, the GOP will have to win this election in the grocery stores and malls, among seniors, at the gas pumps, and with Joe Six Pack believing he will have a job, come election of a Republican.

The Independents. Gaining the votes of large numbers of swing and independent voters is critical to winning the 2012 Presidential election.  A positive can do message could lead to victory.

Pride in America. Generally, the candidate’s message should convey a message that Americans of all ages will have a new sense of pride in our nation.  This will mean the candidate will make a turn around in the apologetic nature of Obama’s mantra that we have done bad things and suppressed the rest of the world.

Obviously, there are other issues that will arise between now and the 2012 election.  Any candidate worth his or her salt must in the best Ronald Reagan tradition, out debate the word smith expert, Obama.

Having said this, winning the Presidency will be a tall order for the Republican candidate, but not impossible if the candidate has near 100% percent support of the party going into election in 2012.

For all of the campaign rhetoric will not make a hill of beans unless the newly elected President and Congress can find common ground among embittered partisan Democrats and Republicans.  Too, the candidate must transfer a positive message to those in the world awaiting  the America’s  downfall with glee.

Democrats have had their opportunity and have blown it badly.  The answers are renewed and revived Republicans in the White House and majorities in both houses of Congress.  Young and bright Republicans are offering excellent ideas that will see our country through these difficult times and find a way for all to enjoy the freedoms and good economic times they have earned.

Richard Gile  Fairhope.  Phone: 928-5526.